For my Elite VIP peeps.
If you’re like many of our clients and partners around the globe, you may be wondering how Brexit will affect your people and interests in the UK.
The answer is uncertain, but the transition will be a long term, complex affair that can’t start until the UK Government triggers the exit process by serving a formal notice on the EU.
From that point, the legislation appears to require that the process be completed within 2 years. We are in uncharted waters and 2 years is the absolute minimum period in which to accomplish all that needs to be accomplished. It seems unlikely that the UK will serve formal notice until there is a new Prime Minister AND the Government has a clear exit plan.
It’s entirely up to the UK when they serve that notice. The EU cannot start the process despite their obvious irritation at the democratic decision of the UK people.
A number of political commentators are saying that Brexit may never actually happen. I understand that view.
It seems to me that the result of the Referendum is not a vote against the concept of the EU per se. It feels to me more like a rejection of the meaningless “reform deal” that Prime Minister Cameron brought back to Parliament in an effort to persuade the UK people to choose to Remain in the EU. In effect David Cameron got nothing meaningful from the EU, which is (let’s face it) a massive bureaucracy that badly needs major reform.
The EU has become a huge, wasteful, undemocratic machine that has morphed out of all proportion from the original concept of a European trading association designed to strengthen the economies of all its member states.
It’s clear that the peoples of other member states are also dissatisfied. They too are kicking back against their respective Governments. The EU is headed into its own crisis as the UK’s decision foreshadows a domino effect amongst other members.
Leading Leave campaigner, Boris Johnson (widely thought to have the best chance of replacing Cameron as Prime Minister) has always said that a Leave decision would probably ACTUALLY lead to the UK securing a much better membership deal with the EU, rather than a full-on Brexit. In other words, this may well be the start of a REAL reform negotiation.
To my mind, David Cameron broke the cardinal rule of negotiation: he went into the talks believing that ANY deal was better than NO deal. Consequently, he ended up accepting a so-called reform package that was largely cosmetic. The people of the UK were unimpressed and voted with their feet!
The transition process is going to be a long, complicated affair. In practice, no practical changes will occur for at least 2 years and during that time there will likely be far more people coming to the UK; not less! Many folks will be moving to the UK before any changes to the rules can be implemented.
Those are my initial thoughts. What are yours.
Please use the free text box below to let me know what changes you see happening in your company’ decision making as a result of the Brexit vote?
Will you be considering moving your UK operations to another EU member state?
(I will share the trends that emerge from this Brexit survey with all respondents but will not be naming names!)
Please enter your answers in the text box below. Your ID info will be kept strictly confidential.